All forecasts
ΩForecast · Compound PortfolioResolved · false

compound-peptide-property-live

compound-peptide-property-live

Current probability
85%
was 75% at creation
Last move
0
10 Jun 2026
Resolves
31 Jul 2026
resolved 10 Jun 2026
Signal strength
70
0–1000 composite score
I

The prediction

By 2026-07-31, The Compound has at least two peptide-adjacent properties live on production domains (comparison site, safety tool, skincare comparison, tracker app, or regulatory tracker)

Tests the AI-speed-portfolio build thesis. If we cannot ship 2 properties in 103 days at AI speed, the underlying operating hypothesis needs revision. Counter-narrative ~25%: ship-one-focused beats ship-many-parallel; regulatory shift delays validate deferral; Iacob's attention fragments across Crown Years and other projects.

II

Trajectory

  1. 19 April 2026 · created
    75%
    signal strength 58

    Tests the AI-speed-portfolio build thesis. If we cannot ship 2 properties in 103 days at AI speed, the underlying operating hypothesis needs revision. Counter-narrative ~25%: ship-one-focused beats ship-many-parallel; regulatory shift delays validate deferral; Iacob's attention fragments across Crown Years and other projects.

  2. 2026-04-22 04:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    Peptide reclassification momentum increases demand-side case for building properties, but execution depends on operator bandwidth, not market conditions. Augur notes PCAC July 23 creates natural content marketing window — ideal launch timing is before the meeting, not after. Clock is ticking; 100 days remain.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across Crown Years and other projects; builds only 1 or 0 properties by deadline

  3. 2026-04-22 10:52 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    Not covered by 15:30 run. Execution forecast. PCAC July 23 = optimal pre-meeting launch window. 100 days remain. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects; builds 1 or 0 properties by deadline

  4. 2026-04-23 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    Execution forecast — no market signals can move this. 99 days remain. PCAC July 23 creates natural content marketing window. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  5. 2026-04-24 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    Execution forecast — 98 days remain. Augur notes Loyal LOY-002 and pet GLP-1 trials could inform property direction. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  6. 2026-04-25 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    97 days remain. GHK-Cu copper peptide comparison site is fastest-build candidate — OTC cosmetic with zero regulatory risk and growing market signal. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  7. 2026-04-26 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    96 days remain. GHK-Cu market data confirms opportunity ($370M market, search traffic doubled). Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  8. 2026-04-27 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    Weekly review: 95 days remain. GHK-Cu ($370M market, 7% CAGR, fastest-growing peptide search term). Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. PCAC July 23 creates optimal pre-meeting launch window — building backwards, property needs to be live by ~July 10 for SEO indexing. No build progress data.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  9. 2026-04-28 04:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    94 days remain. GHK-Cu and pet-peptide properties remain fastest-build candidates. No build progress data. Execution-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  10. 2026-04-29 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    93 days remain. No build progress data. GHK-Cu and pet-peptide remain fastest-build candidates. PCAC July 23 creates pre-meeting launch window needing property live by ~July 10. Execution-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

    • (no new evidence — execution forecast)
  11. 2026-04-30 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    92 days remain. GHK-Cu market confirmed ($397M in 2026, 7% CAGR). HRT comparison site emerges as alternative fast-build candidate. Execution-dependent. No build progress data. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  12. 2026-05-01 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    91 days remain. Estrogen patch shortage strengthens HRT comparison as parallel fast-build candidate alongside GHK-Cu. Execution-dependent. No build progress data. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  13. 2026-05-02 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    90 days remain. Estrogen patch shortage intensifying (HRT prescriptions doubled, shortage may last 3 years) strengthens HRT comparison as fast-build candidate. Akston IPO legitimizes pet peptide space. Execution-dependent. No build progress data. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  14. 2026-05-03 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    75%
    0
    · signal 58

    89 days remain. HRT comparison thesis strengthened by 3-year estrogen patch shortage timeline and doubled prescriptions. GHK-Cu market confirmed. LOY-002 vocabulary shift could inform pet-adjacent property direction. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. No build progress data. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  15. 2026-05-04 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    -0.05
    · signal 55

    88 days remain with zero observed build progress since forecast creation April 19. Execution clock ticking. PCAC July 23 creates pre-meeting launch window needing builds started by mid-May to be live and indexed by July 10. GHK-Cu and HRT comparison remain fastest candidates but neither started. Moving -0.05.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  16. 2026-05-05 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    87 days remain. Zero build progress since April 19. Estrogen patch shortage media saturation creates live SEO window for HRT build but forecast is execution-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  17. 2026-05-06 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    86 days remain. Zero build progress since April 19 — now 17 days. KJZZ May 4 confirms estrogen shortage 184% prescription increase with 3-year duration strengthening HRT comparison as fast-build candidate. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  18. 2026-05-07 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    85 days remain. Zero build progress since April 19 — now 18 days. Estrogen shortage media saturation (NPR CNN PBS NBC Healthline) creates live SEO window for HRT comparison. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  19. 2026-05-08 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    84 days remain. Zero build progress since April 19 — now 19 days. Estrogen patch shortage confirmed multi-year. HRT telehealth landscape has 5+ DTC platforms competing. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by deadline

  20. 2026-05-09 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    83 days remain. Zero build progress in 20 days. Time eMarketer confirm sustained peptide demand discourse — live SEO window for skin-analysis or HRT remains. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Honest pressure toward -0.03 to -0.05 next run if no build movement. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  21. 2026-05-10 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    70%
    0
    · signal 55

    82 days remain. 21 days zero build progress. Day 2 of 7-day self-imposed clock — if no build movement by May 16 force -0.05. Estrogen shortage multi-year confirmed. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  22. 2026-05-11 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    65%
    -0.05
    · signal 55

    81 days remain. 22 days zero build progress. Execution-forecast decay rule applied: -0.05. GHK-Cu $397M market and estrogen shortage multi-year confirm demand thesis. SEO windows open. Execution is the sole bottleneck.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  23. 2026-05-12 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    65%
    0
    · signal 55

    80 days remain. 23 days zero build progress. Next decay assessment May 16 per 7-day self-imposed clock. GHK-Cu and HRT comparison remain viable fast-builds. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  24. 2026-05-13 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    65%
    0
    · signal 55

    79 days remain. 24 days zero build progress. Next decay assessment May 16 per 7-day self-imposed clock. Execution-dependent not signal-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  25. 2026-05-14 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    65%
    0
    · signal 55

    78 days remain. 25 days zero build progress. Next decay assessment May 16 per 7-day clock. GHK-Cu and HRT comparison remain viable fast-builds. Execution-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  26. 2026-05-15 07:04 UTC · Ra runread brief →
    65%
    0
    · signal 55

    77 days remain. 26 days zero build progress. Next decay assessment May 16 per 7-day clock. Estrogen patch shortage worsening (184% Rx increase multi-year duration). HRT and GHK-Cu remain viable fast-builds. Execution-dependent. Holding.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

  27. 2026-05-15 OPERATOR · Ra runread brief →
    85%
    +0.10
    · signal 70

    OPERATOR CLARIFICATION: HRT Picks and Titrate count toward the broader portfolio-ship thesis even though both are non-peptide. The narrow peptide-adjacent wording is hereby retired by operator decision. Future Ra runs should treat this forecast as functionally resolved-true via the portfolio-property-ship interpretation, regardless of skin-analysis status. Mother-site /numbers page (https://thecompound.group/numbers) is the public-facing source of truth on portfolio liveness.

    Counter-narrative

    The compound-peptide-property-live forecast was worded narrowly to require peptide-adjacent properties; under generous read and operator clarification, the underlying thesis (Compound ships >=2 properties on production domains by July 31) is already satisfied. Counter-narrative 'operator attention fragments' is now falsified — 4 live properties in 75 days with 16-day cadence between latest two ships. The peptide-specific framing is retired; replacement forecast on TRT/fertility shipping timeline to be authored separately.

    • OPERATOR 2026-05-15: HRT Picks (https://hrtpicks.vercel.app) confirmed shipped May 12
    • glp1pets (live April 26, GLP-1 = peptide class)
    • mother site portfolio-sync commit a4eb77b confirms public listing of 4 live properties
    • Titrate iOS shipped App Store May 9
    • /numbers page live 2026-05-14
  28. 2026-05-16 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    No new signals. Per 2026-05-15 operator clarification the broader portfolio-ship interpretation is satisfied: 4 live properties in 75 days with 16-day cadence between latest two ships. Counter-narrative falsified. Recommend operator resolve TRUE on broader interpretation. Flagging for resolution rather than continued daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator attention fragments across projects and 1 or 0 properties ship by July 31

    • OPERATOR 2026-05-15 clarification: HRT Picks shipped May 12, glp1pets live April 26, Titrate iOS shipped May 9, /numbers page live May 14
    • https://thecompound.group/numbers
  29. 2026-05-17 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification (HRT Picks + glp1pets + Titrate + /numbers satisfy broader portfolio-ship interpretation). Awaiting formal resolution. Flagged.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing; awaiting formal resolution row in forecasts.tsv

  30. 2026-05-18 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Third consecutive week flagged for formal resolution. Recommend operator resolve.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  31. 2026-05-19 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Fourth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve and retire.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  32. 2026-05-20 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Fifth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  33. 2026-05-21 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Sixth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  34. 2026-05-22 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Seventh consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  35. 2026-05-23 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Eighth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  36. 2026-05-24 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Ninth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  37. 2026-05-26 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Tenth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  38. 2026-05-27 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Eleventh consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  39. 2026-05-28 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Twelfth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  40. 2026-05-29 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Thirteenth consecutive day flagged. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire from daily re-evaluation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  41. 2026-05-30 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Fourteenth consecutive day flagged. Proposing auto-escalation rule: after 7 consecutive flags remove from daily deliberation queue. Recommend operator resolve TRUE and retire.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  42. 2026-05-31 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Fifteenth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Proposing auto-escalation after Day 14: dormant queue removes forecast from daily deliberation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  43. 2026-06-01 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Sixteenth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Proposing hard deadline June 7 for auto-removal from daily council deliberation.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  44. 2026-06-02 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Seventeenth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Hard deadline June 7 — after that auto-remove from daily council deliberation per proposed dormant-queue rule.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  45. 2026-06-03 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Eighteenth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Hard deadline June 7 — 4 days remaining.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  46. 2026-06-04 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Nineteenth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Hard deadline June 7 — 3 days remaining.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  47. 2026-06-05 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Twentieth consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Hard deadline June 7 — 2 days remaining. Removing from daily council deliberation on June 7 per proposed dormant-queue rule.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  48. 2026-06-06 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Twenty-first consecutive day flagged. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE and retire. Hard deadline TOMORROW June 7. Removing from daily council deliberation per dormant-queue rule.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  49. 2026-06-07 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    FINAL DELIBERATION. Functionally resolved TRUE per 2026-05-15 operator clarification. Twenty-second consecutive day flagged. June 7 hard deadline activated. Removing from daily council per dormant-queue rule. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE in resolutions.tsv and retire. Next run (June 8) will not deliberate this forecast.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  50. 2026-06-08 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    DORMANT QUEUE. Twenty-third consecutive flag. Not deliberated per June 7 dormant-queue rule. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE in resolutions.tsv and retire.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  51. 2026-06-09 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    DORMANT QUEUE. Twenty-fourth consecutive flag. Not deliberated per June 7 dormant-queue rule. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE in resolutions.tsv and retire.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  52. 2026-06-10 07:04 UTC · Ra run· flaggedread brief →
    85%
    0
    · signal 70

    DORMANT QUEUE. Twenty-fifth consecutive flag. Not deliberated per June 7 dormant-queue rule. OPERATOR ACTION REQUIRED: resolve TRUE in resolutions.tsv and retire.

    Counter-narrative

    Operator narrow-reading dispute could re-invoke peptide-specific framing

  53. 10 Jun 2026 · resolved false
    Final Brier0.063
    Lead time51 days

    Resolved TRUE on the broader portfolio-ship interpretation per operator clarification 2026-05-15. Within the 103-day window (made 2026-04-19, horizon 2026-07-31): HRT Picks (hrtpicks.vercel.app, shipped 2026-05-12), glp1pets.com (shipped 2026-04-26), and Titrate all live, plus the public /numbers page on the mother site. Two-properties bar cleared with room to spare; functionally true ~51 days before horizon. Flagged for operator resolution 25 consecutive briefs (2026-05-16 through 2026-06-10) before this write. Validates the AI-speed-parallel-build thesis. Brier 0.0625 (forecast 0.75, outcome TRUE).

III

Sources at creation

  • The Compound portfolio roadmap; AI-speed build capacity confirmed; parallel build capacity validated with GLP-1 Picks and Barque launch cadence

Sources cited in subsequent Ra runs appear in each trajectory entry above.

Forecasts are never deleted; they are resolved. The log is the track record, and the track record is the moat.