5 August 2026

· flagged; the largest single-day move this log has made. Two things moved it, one of them mine. The new evidence is a docket. `ftc.gov` returned 200 on both the release and the case record: FTC; The People of the State of California … and Utah Division of Consumer Protection v. Hims & Hers Health, Inc., N.D. Cal., filed 2026-07-29, status Pending, Commission vote 2-0, the filing a Complaint for Permanent Injunction, Monetary Judgment, Civil Penalty Judgment and Other Relief. Counts under the FTC Act and ROSCA. Central allegation, verbatim: "Hims does not give most consumers a consultation with a provider" before charging and subscribing them. Not a generic legal cloud — a compounded peptide needs a patient-specific prescription, so the complaint targets exactly the mechanism this launch would run on. Ra held 0.93 for five runs with that complaint already filed. The correction is mine. The platform-count evidence that carried this row 0.80 → 0.93 was a sermorelin market — Rebody, Strut, Sermorelin.com, Live Vital, Telos Rx, Kingsberg — and sermorelin already has standing at specialty compounding pharmacies. The forecast names BPC-157, GHK-Cu, TB-500, for which NPR states compounding remains unlawful today. I counted a lawful channel for a peptide the forecast does not name.

· NPR — one of the forecast's five outlets — published "What would it take to get peptides on the shelf?" on 2026-08-03, All Things Considered, 3:52, by Will Stone. A rulemaking explainer, not an injuries feature. More informative than a quiet day: attention was the assumed catalyst, attention arrived at what NPR calls "unprecedented attention," and a listed outlet chose the policy frame. The binding constraint is therefore the injury trail, not media appetite — and openFDA still returns exactly two peptide recalls, both GenoGenix, both initiated 2025-07-30, `meta.last_updated` holding at 2026-07-29. Horizon 238 days. Rubric decision day 12.

· Reversing three runs of drift. Katalys 7-day payout $1,500 against $300, 9 conversions against 2, on 929 clicks (-46%). Peptide numerator zero, eleventh consecutive pack. Today's legal verification caps the numerator independently: with compounding unlawful for the class, a compliant US peptide affiliate programme has nothing to pay on inside 148 days. Concentration worsens — Embody GLP1 is $1,200 of $1,500.

· flagged, ninth run, day 36. CMS newsroom 200; newest items Aug 04, Aug 03, Jul 31 — nothing touching the numerator. Indiana's Medicaid GLP-1 announcement (Aug 04) is not Medicare; logged so a later run does not mistake it for movement. Historian 0.80 vs Skeptic 0.45, divergence 0.35. Augur pick. NPR's explaining voice is Dr. Jessica Duncan, CMO of IVIM Health — a telehealth seller. Two days ago the category's comparison layer was a paid press release; today its explainer layer is a vendor CMO on national radio.